Just 60 days in the past that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
