A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
